The official nominations have been released. Here I'll list the nominations in the categories that interest me and give my brief thoughts. Italicized is the movie I think should win. Bolded is the movie I think probably will win. Full list of categories and nominations here: http://oscar.go.com/ [b]Best Picture:[/b] Black Swan The Fighter [i]Inception[/i] The Kids Are All Right The King's Speech 127 Hours [b]The Social Network[/b] Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter's Bone For one in my life I've actually seen most of nominees (all except The Fighter and 127 Hours) and I think they are all good movies, except The Kids Are All Right which I didn't like. However it's this year's Little Miss Sunshine which means it will probably take a screenplay award for being about lesbians and it has a shot at the actress and supporting actor categories. We'll get to that. Actually glad to see Winter's Bone pick up a nomination. Toy Story 3 is a nice nod though it has absolutely zero chance of winning this category and absolutely zero chance of losing the Animated Film category. I think the real contenders here are The Social Network, which I highly favored before seeing the nomination, and The King's Speech, which is nominated for 12 total awards which shows it has more momentum than I previously guessed. Even though I'm saying I preferred Inception it has no chance of winning this category and TSN and TKS are both great movies (TSN more so) so I doubt I'll be too disappointed here. [b]Actor in a Leading Role[/b] Javier Bardem - Biutiful Jeff Bridges - True Grit Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network [i][b]Colin Firth - The King's Speech[/b][/i] James Franco - 127 Hours Firth is almost a lock for this one. Seeing the King's Speech get so many nominations shows people think highly of it, and Firth's award is surely the front runner in terms of the movie's honors. It's his to lose. Outside shot at Franco. [b]Actor in a Supporting Role[/b] [b]Christian Bale - The Fighter[/b] John Hawkes - Winter's Bone Jeremy Renner - The Town Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right [i]Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech[/i] I feel like it's Bale's year. He's been doing notable performances forever, and while I haven't seen him in an Oscar-worthy role before, you could tell from the advertising campaign listing Mark Wahlberg as an award winner that he was getting a shot here. Unfortunately his is the only performance on the list I haven't seen, so I couldn't tell you how it stacks up. Out of the ones I've seen, I loved Rush in TKS so if he won I would consider that justic. Nevertheless all are good. Renner and Ruffalo are probably the weakest. The biggest snub here is Andrew Garfield in The Social Network. Surprised he didn't receive a nomination, maybe over Renner since The Town wasn't nominated for best picture. [b]Actress in a Leading Role[/b] Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone [i][b]Natalie Portman - Black Swan[/b][/i] Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine Of the three performances I've seen I like Portman, but I would be happy if Jennifer Lawrence picked up the award. Her portrayal of Ree in WB was spot on. The real competition though is going to be Annette Bening, and I'll be a little upset if that happens. [b]Actress in a Supporting Role[/b] Amy Adams - The Fighter Helena Boham Carter - The King's Speech [b]Melissa Leo - The Fighter[/b] [i]Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit[/i] Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom This is strong category, excepting Bonham Carter who frankly does not belong. I loved Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, though she should have been nominated for Lead Actress. Weaver was also good in Animal Kingdom, but I think a nom is all she'll get. The biggest problem with my acting predictions is that they pretty much mirror the Golden Globes, and I suspect that there will be at least one upset. Probably in one of the actress categories. Hard call. [b]Animated Feature Film[/b] How to Train Your Dragon The Illusionist [b][i]Toy Story 3[/i][/b] Toy Story 3. Why are we even talking about this? [b]Directing[/b] Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan David O. Russell - The Fighter Tom Hooper - The King's Speech [b]David Fincher - The Social Network[/b] Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit Fincher is the likely winner for this. He's always been a stylish director - it's just taken a while for him to do a film that appeals to the academy. The real underdog is the Coens for True Grit. No way they will win, especially after No Country for Old Men a couple of years ago. The biggest snub here is that Christopher Nolan was not nominated for Inception, and this is not Inception's only snub. It was also left out of the editing category. I'm okay with Fincher winning, but dang it, Nolan deserved a nomination. I'm not listing all the film editing or art direction nominees, but I want to say I am disappointed (though not surprised) that the very worthy Scott Pilgrim vs. The World was not considered for either award. [b]Visual Effects[/b] Alice in Wonderland Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I Hereafter [b][i]Inception[/i][/b] Iron Man 2 I actually do see Inception picking up this award. After all it's deserving. It's received 8 nominations, it has to win a couple. Possibly original score (Zimmer) though TSN could pick that up too. Possibly sound editing or mixing. Hereafter is a weird choice and should have been replaced with Tron Legacy or Scott Pilgrim. [b]Writing - Adapted Screenplay[/b] 127 Hours [b][i]The Social Network[/i][/b] Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter's Bone The screenplay was possibly The Social Network's biggest strength, so I would be surprised if Sorkin didn't take home a statue for it. [b]Writing - Original Screenplay[/b] Another Year The Fighter [i]Inception[/i] The Kids Are All Right [b]The King's Speech[/b] I'm going to be uncommonly optimistic and say that an actually good screenplay will win, even if it's not my favorite one. The King's Speech being nominated so many times gives me hope it may win this award, over my original pick The Kids Are All Right. I still fear TKAAR will steal Portman's statue instead of this one, and I guess I'd prefer to see it win in this category if anywhere. Again, Inception will be honored with a nom but not take the win. Well that's all the ones I feel like writing about. Feel free to comment on anything to do with the Oscars or these films in this topic.

[b]Best Picture:[/b] I think The Social Network definitely deserves to win out of those there (I've seen woefully few of the Oscar nominated movies though, so my opinion probably doesn't count for much). Inception is fantastic and wonderful, but TSN's better characters and the ridiculously fantastic script edge it out for me. [b]Actor in a Supporting Role[/b]: Garfield's lack of a nomination really surprised me. He definitely deserves to be there. I'd say over Ruffalo instead of Renner. Ruffalo's acting wasn't anything special in a movie that was on the average end of average, and Renner's performance in the Town (which, admittedly I watched without any sound so I didn't get the whole performance) was better than Ruffalo's. [b] Actress in a Leading Role[/b]: Haven't seen most these films so I can't comment, but I do think that Hailee Steinfeld should have been nominated here instead of Annette Bening. That's mostly all I have to say, except for the fact that Scott Pilgrim's [i]complete[/i] snub is very annoying, and it should have at [i]least[/i] been nominated for Film Editing or Visual Effects.

Yeah, actually, now that you mention it I would take Renner over Ruffalo. Not sure what I was thinking, except that the Academy obviously likes TKAAR more than The Town. I kind of thought The Town would have more noms over all. Nom. Nom nom nom.

The more I think on it, the more I think that Shutter Island should have been nominated for something. In some ways I like that movie even better than Inception, particularly for acting from Dicaprio. I felt the art direction and cinematography were really solid and it should have received at least some noms even if it probably wouldn't have won.

Shutter Island was just oozing style. For some reason Martin Scorsese is disliked by the Academy. He finally got recognized for The Departed a few years ago but it seemed like they were making up for decades of ignoring movies like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas. It's not surprised that when he made a genre piece he got overlooked. Nolan, it seems, is getting some of the same treatment. It's like they're forced to recognize Inception and The Dark Knight because popular opinion is so strongly behind them, but snubs for director and editing show they still have a grudge either against him or his style of film making. You're right about DiCaprio's performance in that being better than Inception. He had more character stuff to dig into. Also, I'm now rethinking some of my predictions. The King's Speech made a huge showing at the SAG awards - The Social Network may be losing even more steam. I'm now thinking there may be a split, and that The King's Speech could take either Best Picture or Best Director with the other going to The Social Network, but... again it's a hard call. I don't know which predictions to change yet but I feel confident there are going to be upsets.

Toy Story 3 is so good, that it MIGHT win best picture? Who knew? I thought it was really great, but not to the point that it would win that award. [b]Best Picture:[/b] Inception. Yeah, I did nominate Scott Pilgrim to be my all time favorite film of last year, but before I went to see that, I saw Inception. Right when I was that film, I already nominated that one to be my favorite film of last year. It made me believe that there is still enough room in this world for original movies. The action, special effects and the acting was all great. It gave us an ending that is still undecided for us all, and it continues today to still be a movie that people would still call a classic. [b]Animated Featured Film:[/b] Toy Story 3. Come on, you guys already knew that I would put this one in. When I first heard the story, I thought this movie was going to suck. When I saw the trailers for it, I had some speculations on it. But thankfully, I was 100% wrong. It turned out to be the best one in the trilogy. Yeah, I know that using Goldberg as slinky was a odd decision as a replacement, and that it was kind of dramatic for a children film, but I still had fun watching it. I had so much laughs that gave me a huge smile. And let's not forget this: [IMG]http://i794.photobucket.com/albums/yy222/toystoryftw/computers.png[/IMG] :) [b]Visual Effects:[/b] Inception. I really wanted Scott Pilgrim to be in this category so much, because I thought the visuals looked better in that film. But Inception is better than all of the other movies that the Oscars is going to award. I truly love how this movie is made. Yes, I do know that the fight scene in the hotel is nothing new and that it was used in 2001: A Space Odyssey, but the way how the world works within the dreams is amazing. The way how its being built, the way how its being used, and the way how it works. all of it was incredible to look at.

I agree with you about Scott Pilgrim and Inception. Those were my two favorite films of the year. Unfortunately, Inception has virtually no chance whatsoever of winning Best Picture. First of all it, Nolan was snubbed for a directing nomination. This doesn't bode well for its chances. Secondly, Inception was snubbed in the editing category as well. From wikipedia: Since 1981, every film selected as Best Picture has also been nominated for the Film Editing Oscar, and about two thirds of the Best Picture winners have also won for Film Editing. This is very telling in terms of Inception's chances. Third, unlike virtually every other nominee other than Toy Story 3, Inception has no acting nominations.

Maybe Inception can win Best Picture, even if Nolan isn't in the director category, or that Leonardo isn't in the best actor category. I find it sad that Leonardo Dicaprio isn't going to be in the best actor category, because he didn't get an Oscar for best actor in The Aviator. But even if neither Nolan or Dicaprio will be in these categories, they still have a chance on winning best picture, and I'm hoping that it will win the award over Black Swan, The Social Network and all of the other movies that are in the category. Not that I'm saying that there's anything wrong with the other movies, I just like Inception better than the rest.

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r97t6PxTvs&feature=related]Wayne and Garth have Oscar talk[/url] 'NUFF SAID.

Niiiiice. I lol'd at Who's on Firth. Also it would be nice to see Winter's Bone win something, but I don't see where it has much of a shot.